← Long Nguyen
Data Science · ADA (Data & AI) · 2023–Present

A 90%-accurate market trend model, built from public data trails

Reviews, restocks, and ranking shifts — turning the internet's noise into an early warning system.

Data Trend ModelsPythonMarket AnalysisReporting

The problem

Digital activity leaves a footprint everywhere, and eCommerce is no exception — every review, every stock change, every livestream, every ranking report matters. The hard part isn't collecting that data, it's spotting the real signal inside all that noise, across markets, without chasing every data point by hand.

What I did

Working with the Analytics team, I helped design a market-share analysis product built on trend models. We combined six candidate signal metrics into one algorithm and checked how each one actually correlated with sales:

Metric Ar = 0.82Metric Br = 0.71Metric Cr = 0.65Metric Dr = 0.58Metric Er = 0.22Metric Fr = 0.15
Only 4 of the 6 metrics correlated meaningfully with sales — the other two tracked traffic instead, which was itself a useful finding.

We used models that analyze the behavior of each individual data point to surface the most accurate, key changing endpoints — the moments that actually signal a shift, not just noise.

What happened

The result is a market trend report that's roughly 90% accurate. One output: tracking market share shifts between platforms over time.

Shopee — Yr 1 Q1Shopee — Yr 1 Q2Shopee — Yr 1 Q3Shopee — Yr 1 Q4Shopee — Yr 2 Q1Shopee — Yr 2 Q2Shopee — Yr 2 Q3Shopee — Yr 2 Q4Shopee — Yr 3 Q1Shopee — Yr 3 Q2Shopee — Yr 3 Q3Shopee — Yr 3 Q4Shopee — Yr 4 Q1Shopee — Yr 4 Q2Shopee — Yr 4 Q3Shopee — Yr 4 Q4Lazada — Yr 1 Q1Lazada — Yr 1 Q2Lazada — Yr 1 Q3Lazada — Yr 1 Q4Lazada — Yr 2 Q1Lazada — Yr 2 Q2Lazada — Yr 2 Q3Lazada — Yr 2 Q4Lazada — Yr 3 Q1Lazada — Yr 3 Q2Lazada — Yr 3 Q3Lazada — Yr 3 Q4Lazada — Yr 4 Q1Lazada — Yr 4 Q2Lazada — Yr 4 Q3Lazada — Yr 4 Q4TikTok — Yr 1 Q1TikTok — Yr 1 Q2TikTok — Yr 1 Q3TikTok — Yr 1 Q4TikTok — Yr 2 Q1TikTok — Yr 2 Q2TikTok — Yr 2 Q3TikTok — Yr 2 Q4TikTok — Yr 3 Q1TikTok — Yr 3 Q2TikTok — Yr 3 Q3TikTok — Yr 3 Q4TikTok — Yr 4 Q1TikTok — Yr 4 Q2TikTok — Yr 4 Q3TikTok — Yr 4 Q4ShopeeLazadaTikTokYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Market share, by quarter
Illustrative example — real client data is non-disclosable.

This is now used across Nutrition, F&B, Personal Care, Home Care, and Pet Care categories — one of the most-used products by senior management chasing an edge over competitors.

90% accurate market trend reports, used across five product categories by senior leadership
← Back to all projects